Saturday 21 January 2012

Andy Carroll - The Most Expensive Purple Patch

Much has been made about Andy Carroll's form since his move to Merseyside. Since his £35m move he has found the back of the net 6 times in 33 games. A number of reasons have been cited for this, chief amongst them being Kenny Dalglish rotating the squad not allowing Carroll to gain some consistency. My theory is slightly different. I believe that Carroll was signed during a long purple patch, a great run of form that saw him score 30 goals in 62 games. An impressive record, admittedly 19 of those goals came in the Championship. But it's the period of his career before this time that makes me think that Carroll may have been performing about himself.

The season of Newcastle's relegation to the Championship saw Carroll appear 16 times, scoring only 3 goals. The season before he played 6 times for Newcastle without scoring and netted only once whilst on loan to Preston, featuring 12 times. Between the 06/07 season and the 08/09 season Carroll played 41 games and scored only 4 goals. Normally, young strikers coming through will show some sort of early form that can be an indication of what's to come. For example, in his first season for Leeds, Alan Smith scored 9 goals for in 26 appearances, most of them coming from the bench.  Similarly Wayne Rooney scored 8 in 37. These two were scoring goals and consistently showing promise and hit the headlines very quickly. Carroll only made 8 appearances in his first two seasons, scoring none. Although clearly the Newcastle management saw some potential in him, he wasn't grabbing headlines and didn't stand out as a future star.

His loan spell at Preston did little to show he would play at the highest level. Just one goal showed nothing that particularly impressed either Preston or Newcastle. 3 seasons in to his professional career Carroll had made just 29 appearances for Newcastle. At the same stage of his career, Alan Smith had made 116 appearances and scored 33 goals including 7 goals in 16 Champions League games. It wasn't until Carroll started to play regularly for Newcastle when they were relegated to the Championship that he began to develop a scoring run with 19 in 42 games. Unquestionably a good record, but nothing astonishing.

His first real run of Premier League games saw him score 11 goals in 19 games. Slightly better than a goal every other game, Carroll was finally starting to make a name for himself. Unfortunately, it was at this point when Liverpool were looking for someone to replace Fernando Torres who had just made the move to Stamford Bridge. When Liverpool offered £30m for someone who had been valued by Newcastle at just £1m only a year earlier, Mike Ashley must have nearly fainted. Liverpool had set themselves up to fail early on. Once it was made clear that they desperately needed a replacement for Torres, Newcastle had complete control over negotiations. £35m later, Carroll was a red.

Since that time he has netted just 6 times. He has been unfortunate in playing at a time when Gerrard has been injured and Dalglish has used squad rotation, not allowing Carroll to find some form. However, I still believe that this is not down to the tactics, the managers squad policy or even the change of clubs. I believe that Carroll is a decent striker, but probably not a top level striker. Clearly Newcastle didn't value him too greatly. If it would have, Carroll would have had a much higher price tag for a young player with potential. If Newcastle were willing to let him go for not too much more at that stage of his career, they must not have had a great amount of belief that he would become a world beater. The combination of pressure, and playing at a level beyond is, I believe the reason that his move to Liverpool has been a failure.

Sunday 1 January 2012

In His Defence...

After the humiliation at Barnsley it is understandable why the 'Grayson Out' army is louder than ever before. It's tough losing to any local rival but a 4-1 battering really hurts. However, I remain loyal to Grayson and think that calls for his head are very premature. Don't get me wrong, I understand that this hasn't been a great season but it's also hardly a nightmare.

The summer proved to be a key time for Grayson without him actually being able to do much about it. Such is the way Leeds do business that Grayson simply hands over a list of the players that he wants and Shaun Harvey is sent away to get them, although Bates is occasionally involved in negotiations such as Andy O'Brien. With him being forced to let go of Johnson and Kilkenny, two players that divided opinion, as well as losing one of the best players in the Championship in Gradel and not having the time nor the funds to replace him I think it's entirely understandable that we're playing like a mid table side. Those three players were regulars in our midfield, with Johnson and Gradel contributing plenty of goals. Although he never said much on the matter, I don't believe that Grayson wanted to lose Kilkenny and Johnson, two players that he initially dropped from the side when he arrived and who fought their way back in to the team. Gradel contributed 18 goals last season and is a player of very high quality, losing a talent like him was always going to be difficult. Again though, this can be put down to the administration rather than the manager for not offering Gradel a good contract.

We were linked with a number of quality players and each time the deals seemed to fall through as soon as they found out about the £12k wage limit. Players like Puncheon, Smith and Bowyer were all linked and are players that would, I believe, walk in to this side and each add something, and who seemed to be willing to talk with the club but it was the lack of money that halted the deals. Clearly the collapse of these deals is down to the administration of the club and not the manager.

Just running through Saturday's side explains a lot. Connolly, O'Dea. Kisnorbo, Vayrynen, Pugh, Brown, Nunez and Keogh are all replaceable players and with Snodgrass and Howson missing, it's no wonder the score was as bad as it was. Then there's those outside the first team. Bromby, Bruce, Paynter, Rachubka, Forssell, Sam and Maik Taylor are all being paid to do nothing. Some of these are understandable. Yet it still baffles me that someone like Alex Bruce hasn't had a chance in the side since the 3-1 defeat at Swansea last season but before that he'd been playing in the defence during the clubs best run in the league all season, including a terrific performance at The Emirates. However, this is just one player from a large group who have done little to show that they're good enough to take Leeds to the next level.

An article recently published that is doing the rounds on Twitter suggests that the players are unhappy with the way in which he dealt with the Andy O'Brien situation. In summary O'Brien said he wasn't ready to play against Leicester or Burnley but was admonished by Grayson when he allegedly asked not to play. In my opinion, after giving O'Brien so much time to deal with his personal problems the club had a perfectly reasonable case to want him back playing. He is one of the highest earners at the club and they had already shown him loyalty by granting him time away from the game to deal with his issues. Given the time frame he must have expected that the club would want to play him again at some stage, especially with him putting in a good performance against Leicester.

This article is without source so it may well have some truth. Personally, I believe that it is a coincidence and just the fact we have a very average squad. There are a number of players that are getting paid good money to do very little or nothing. Even those that are in the first team are average players for this level, hence the position we are in. In January the club needs to get rid of much of the deadwood and inject some passion and quality back in to the side.

Good luck Andros Townsend.